News
‘On your left is Pyongyang …’
February 22nd 2019
US-North Korea talks could expand North Korean airspace access for all airlines, but mostly from South Korea. The question is political and legal if overflight payments violate sanctions. Read More »
The Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi on 27-28 Feb could result in North Korea opening its airspace. There would be benefit to all airlines flying to or through the region, but the major benefit would be to South Korean airlines, which take large detours to avoid North Korea airspace.
There is no established route between South Korea and North Korea, a result of the 1953 armistice. Consequently, flights to/from South Korea must avoid the Pyongyang FIR, whose territory includes water that would otherwise be under the direct approach path for Seoul Incheon airport.
Airlines take detours to avoid this airspace. At the extreme is Korean Air’s flight to Vladivostok that circumnavigates the Pyongyang FIR, tracking north over China and then south to Russia. This makes the flight upwards as twice as long than if it could access the Pyongyang FIR.
North Korean airspace is available to flights not originating or arriving in South Korea. Flightpaths from Flightradar24 show some flights regularly passing through North Korean airspace, such as KLM services from Japan to Amsterdam. However, these flights only enter the overwater area of the Pyongyang FIR and do not fly over land and peninsular North Korea. There is concern about unannounced missile tests.
Flights from to Europe and North America could benefit from Pyongyang FIR access. There are various estimates of the fuel cost savings, from AIN citing US$15 million for all South Korean carriers to Nikkei citing only US$2 million for Asiana, South Korea’s second-largest airline.
In return, North Korean aviation – Air Koryo – could have improved airspace access, overflight payment and other aviation benefits, but the stronger gains are clearly for foreign countries, so North Korea could bundle airspace in a larger political package.
Some expect this development is too soon. The Nikkei Asia Review last December quoted a South Korean aviation source saying: "We think that they can be launched only when North Korea-U.S. relations improve…We don't think it will be done in the near future."
True to the prediction, Reuters this week reported the US has been pressuring ICAO not to expand North Korean airspace. The US appears to be using airspace access as leverage in negotiations with North Korea. Pyongyang would gain revenue from overflight handling, provided capabilities are assessed and acceptable.
The US contends overflight payments would violate sanction agreements. This has prompted discussions about ICAO’s effectiveness as a body that cannot impose rules. It is also being asked if South Korea is again being too differential in aeropolitics, or higher level officials are choosing their battles.
Some reckon that even if peninsular North Korea is welcome to overflight, airlines will be cautious for some time and avoid the airspace. Risk scenarios range from stray missiles to the chance a civilian flight is misinterpreted as being a spy aircraft, with defense consequently taken.
So no immediate sightseeing of Pyongyang out the window. Views will continue to be of the Yellow Sea.
