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Airbus highlights “economic shift toward the Asia-Pacific” in its latest market forecast
July 9th 2026
Urbanization and GDP growth are driving long-term air travel demand, according to Airbus’ latest 2026-2045 Global Market Forecast (GMF) presented on July 8, 2026. Read More » “In the next 20 years, urbanization is shifting to smaller cities. With a rise in the middle class and the diaspora, new city pairings will become economically viable thanks to increasingly efficient aircraft and growing passenger traffic volumes. Not only is aviation essential for the transportation of high-value, quick-to-market goods, but aviation also connects people for a multitude of reasons across the globe, providing an economic lifeline to many communities,” Airbus said, adding that the number of smaller urban centers will grow at almost triple the pace of larger ones, reflecting shifting urban populations and an increasing diaspora.
“Alongside aircraft efficiencies, the Airbus GMF forecasts expanding connectivity beyond trunk routes to smaller and medium city-pairs. Routes such as Riga-Tenerife or Melbourne-Alice Springs can already be efficiently served by aircraft like the A220. Enhanced aircraft range is also opening new city pairs, allowing direct connections. Such routes include Lisbon-Recife with the A321neo, Dublin-Nashville with the A321XLR, Algiers-Kuala Lumpur with the A330neo and Taipei-Phoenix with an A350,” OEM said.
Airbus pointed out that the traffic growth remains resilient. “By 2045, the middle class demographic most likely to fly will increase by 1.4 billion people (+34%). Global air traffic is robust and inextricably linked to world economic growth as well as people’s desire to travel. Short-term disruptions like regional conflicts and high fuel prices are not dampening long-term demand, as historical data show. In the next 20 years, the Airbus GMF forecasts passenger traffic to grow 3.9% annually, thanks to global GDP growth (+2.6%), rising urban populations (+1.3 billion), and increasing middle classes. By 2045, air traffic will more than double, reaching about 10 billion passengers per year,” the producer predicts.
Airbus highlighted the role of Asia Pacific in the future of aircraft demand. “Mirroring an economic shift toward the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, demand is evolving accordingly. Traffic patterns are evolving due to robust growth in developing economies like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. A significant evolution includes increased international migration and family-related passenger travel (VFR: visiting friends and relatives).”
Airbus said it expected 42,060 total passenger jet deliveries between 2026 and 2045, down 1% from its previous rolling 20-year forecast, to compensate for 19,820 aircraft replacements of older aircraft and 22,240 for growth. This includes 33,920 single-aisle jets (80%) and 8,140 wide-body jets (19%).
