News
Boeing sees Asia-Pacific growth resuming
November 10th 2021
Asia-Pacific aviation may be in the doldrums but U.S. aerospace giant, Boeing, is forecasting resumed long-term growth that will see the region regain its global leadership position from an aviation market worth US$6.8 trillion over the next two decades. Read More » Boeing estimates the region will need 17,645 new aircraft in the next two decades with a market value of US$3.1 trillion. This is slightly higher than the company’s 2019 forecast that the Asia-Pacific would need 17,000 planes over that timeframe. The cargo fleet is tipped to more than triple to 1,160 aircraft, including new and converted models, to roughly equal North America’s cargo fleet by 2040. Add to this an aftermarket services market worth US$3.7 trillion and the new forecast predicts Asia-Pacific's total aviation market value in the two decades will be US$6.8 trillion as it grows to account for almost 50% of global traffic by 2040. In its 2021 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) Boeing said the Asia-Pacific has diverse air travel markets, including mature economies in Northeast Asia and Oceania and growing aviation markets in China, South Asia and Southeast Asia. It argues the travel recovery enabled by rising COVID-19 vaccination rates will leave Asia-Pacific carriers well positioned to capitalize on recovering business and leisure travel and air cargo. “We have seen strong resilience in Asia-Pacific traffic when restrictions are lifted and passengers feel confident about travel,” said Boeing vice president commercial marketing, Darren Hulst. The CMO will be welcome news for Southeast Asian airlines only starting to see the reopening of international borders and still suffering big cuts in capacity and passenger traffic. A regional breakdown of the Asia-Pacific market predicts Southeast Asian countries will see rapid economic growth in the next two decades matched by fleet growth and passenger traffic well above global averages. This scenario forecasts LCCs expanding intra-regional networks with single-aisle jets, while open skies and trade agreements will enable carriers to invest in fuel-efficient wide-bodies to serve long-haul routes. As a result, Southeast Asia will need 4,465 new planes valued at US$765 billion and commercial aviation services valued at US$790 billion by 2040. “In Northeast Asia, mature economies will continue to support a balanced air travel market across domestic, regional and long-haul travel segments,’’ the report said. “Fleet replacement will account for nearly 75% of new deliveries as airlines look to improve sustainability and fleet versatility. The region is expected to need 1,385 new airplanes valued at $310 billion and require services valued at US $555 billion in the next 20 years.” A breakdown of aircraft types shows single-aisle jets will account for almost 13,500 deliveries across the Asia-Pacific, or about three-quarters of demand in terms of units. Wide-body jets, including passenger and cargo models, will total nearly 3,800 aircraft. Boeing’s 2021 Pilot and Technician Outlook (PTO) forecasts the region will require nearly 820,000 new aviation personnel, including more than 230,000 pilots and nearly 250,000 technicians and 340,000 cabin crew members.
