Airlines worldwide forecast to deliver total net profit record in 2026

December 10th 2025

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Global airlines are expected to achieve a total net profit of US$41 billion in 2026 compared with $39.5 billion in 2025, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced in its latest financial outlook. Read More » The predicted net profit will set a new record although net profit margins are forecast to be unchanged from 2025, at 3.9%. Net profit per passenger transported is estimated to be $7.90; below the 2023 peak of $8.50 and lower than Apple’s profit from selling any iPhone cover, Willie Walsh, IATA director general, told journalists attending the IATA Global Media Day gathering in Geneva. Total industry revenue will reach $1.053 trillion in 2026, up 4.5% on the $1.008 trillion revenue forecast for the full year 2025.

For Asia-Pacific airlines, the projected 2026 profit is $6.6 billion compared to $6.2 billion in 2025 with net margins estimated at 2.3 %. In 2026, net margins in the region will be $3.20 against $3.30 in 2025. IATA said Asia-Pacific airline passenger demand remains robust with China and India leading regional expansion driven by rising tourism activity and their growing middle classes. Easing visa requirements for Chinese group tours to South Korea and for visitors to China are expected to stimulate short-term inbound demand, particularly during peak holiday periods. Next year demand (RPK) is predicted to grow 7.3% and capacity (ASK) 7.1%. "Overcapacity remains a challenge amid a slower recovery in international traffic, putting pressure on yields. Deflationary pressures are driving yields lower in China. Nevertheless, the Asia-Pacific remains the largest contributor to global traffic growth with load factors projected to reach 84.4% in 2026, an all-time high for the region," IATA said.

Looking at 2025, IATA highlighted the importance of air cargo in delivering economic performance. "The resilience in air cargo has been particularly impressive. As trade flows adapt to a protectionist U.S. tariff regime, air cargo has been the hero of global trade, buoyed in part by robust e-commerce and semiconductor shipments to support the boom in AI investments. Notably, air cargo enabled front-loading to deliver products ahead of tariff deadlines, and it flexibly accommodated demand surges as tariffed goods normally destined for the U.S. found new markets. The critical role of air cargo is front and center as the global economy adjusts to new realities," said Walsh.

The "amazing thing for this year was front loading". "Air cargo came to the rescue, as it did during the COVID-19 pandemic," said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA senior vice president sustainability and chief economist. "We might not count on it bringing the benefits forever as we are expecting less cargo growth going forward," she said.

Supply chain issues "will take longer to resolve than anticipated" global airline association predicts

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has updated its analysis of aerospace supply chain bottlenecks, noting aircraft availability remains one of the most significant constraints on industry growth. Deliveries of new aircraft began to pick up in late 2025 and production is expected to accelerate in 2026, but demand is forecast to outstrip availability of aircraft and engines.

Airlines are feeling the impact of the aerospace supply chain challenges across their businesses. Higher leasing costs, reduced scheduling flexibility, delayed sustainability and increased reliance on suboptimal aircraft types are the most obvious challenges.

"Airlines are missing opportunities to strengthen their top lines, improve their environmental performance and serve customers. Meanwhile, travelers are seeing higher costs from the resulting tighter demand/supply conditions. No effort should be spared to accelerate solutions before the impact becomes even more acute," said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. He added there is an understanding that solving the issue will take longer to resolve than the industry anticipated. Especially unfair is the situation in which the OEMs declare up to 27% profit margins while the airline industry’s margin is 3.9%.

"People who are causing the problems are improving their margins. We need to challenge these guys. Ask them how it feels comfortable to make margins of 27% and at the same time to do a bad job," Walsh said at the IATA Global Media Day.

Global association applauds Singapore decision to introduce SAF levy

"In a world where nobody is doing anything, we need to see if Singapore’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) levy actually works," IATA’s Marie Owens Thomsen, said in response to an Orient Aviation Daily Digest question at the association’s global media day. She highlighted IATA’s trust in Singapore’s authorities and added the solution is better than introducing mandates as other countries have done. The potential issues to be watched are the fact there is a monopoly buyer and that the possibility for the airlines to individually negotiate their purchases has been removed from the airlines, Thomsen said, clarifying these are remarks that apply as a general rule, rather than a comment about Singapore’s decision. "We are applauding the initiative and we are trusting it will be corrected when needed," she said.